Mirra brief · weekly · 2026-07-20
@avifelman
56 posts45 docs834 likes143 replies116,204 views
Avi Felman spent the week bullish on crypto's return, sceptical of headline-driven narratives from Polymarket to war reporting, and quietly proud that 1000x's creator token has survived two years without bleeding to zero — while flagging a tactical long in memory stocks (DRAM) and SpaceX ($SPCX).
Market Macro & Equity Trades
Felman's standout macro post was a detailed executive summary of a divergent market: June CPI collapsed -0.4% MoM (largest monthly decline since April 2020), dropping YoY inflation to 3.5%, with core at 0.0% MoM — collapsing odds of a July Fed hike from ~42% to ~12-17% under new Chair Kevin Warsh [doc 17]. Yet he stressed the CPI relief is colliding with a live supply shock: US strikes on Iran, Trump's naval blockade of Iranian ports, Brent +4.5% to ~$86.90 (+13.7% in five days), and Hormuz transits down >50% WoW [doc 17]. He flagged a tradeable divergence: Polymarket prices 79% odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by Dec 31 2026 while Brent sits at 5-month highs — 'one of those markets is wrong' [doc 17]. On equities, he noted semis led the CPI rally (SMH +2.6%) on reported US approval for Chinese firms to buy Nvidia H200s, while IBM cratered -25.2% (worst day since 1987) as clients diverted capex from software to hardware [doc 17]. His specific equity call: 'if you're at 0%, time to bid some' on memory stocks, suggesting averaging into DRAM with another 15-20% downside possible before heavy accumulation [doc 16]. He also endorsed the thesis that SpaceX ($SPCX) trades like a low-float crypto token — a 'screaming buy' once it bases and attention moves elsewhere [doc 36].
Crypto & Digital Assets
Felman's crypto commentary centred on resilience and ecosystem-building. He reflected that his Nov-2023 call for a Jan 21, 2025 Bitcoin cycle top (BTC printed ~$109K on inauguration day) was close enough to claim a win, while noting @jvb_xyz was the only voice arguing the cycle would extend past everyone else's timeline [doc 3]. He described the AI-to-crypto rotation as 'real but slow' with crypto in a 'choppy bottom' and no momentum [doc 10]. His most personal post: the 1000x creator token (base:0x352…) launched accidentally two years ago with Virtuals, spent a year building an AI research terminal, and now generates revenue from both the podcast and the 1000x.money terminal — he claimed it's the only social token to last two years without being abandoned, emphasising he's never taken paid promos and the token is a funnel to the podcast, not a monetisation vehicle [doc 13]. On podcast independence, he noted 1000x has taken no sponsors since leaving BlockWorks, and will only accept sponsorships for products he actually uses [doc 14]. He confirmed token mechanics for revenue share aren't yet contractual because 'otherwise it's a security' [doc 12].
Trading Philosophy & Psychology
Felman's most-discussed post (53 replies) was a simple 'good morning' testing whether the X algo had been fixed — noting it was the first tweet a mutual had replied to in years [doc 27]. He strongly endorsed @gametheorizing's framing of edge as the ability to source risk from people who want to de-risk, defending the use of 'edge' as a general term against a quant-pedantic critic: 'edge is a general term in life... people can have edge in anything, how you hold a tennis racket, who you know is an edge' [doc 11]. He amplified @0xaporia's reformulation that 'trading is the monetization of risk' [doc 43]. On process, he warned that 'trading from your phone is an easy way to go broke' because it 'hijacks your impulses' and is 'designed to spike your dopamine' [doc 5]. His sharpest self-assessment: 'I generated success by being completely and utterly delusional and lucky' [doc 24].
American Politics & Society
Felman argued that conspiracy theories persist because they provide comfort — 'their main purpose is to provide a sense of comfort that there is a hidden class of people running the world' — and that the alternative, 'no one really knows how to run things,' is 'far scarier' [doc 23]. He wryly agreed with @goodalexander that the ideal life is getting 'rich, jacked and have fun without accumulating weird spiritual or political views' [doc 4]. He dismissed the geopolitical noise of the week with market-flavoured apathy: 'You think it matters, you think something will happen... nothing will happen. Stocks will go up. Life will go on. You will read the 15th ceasefire headline. At #26 you will finally agree with me' [doc 38]. His most-liked post in this vein (93 likes, ~11k views) warned that Polymarket headlines about Michael Burry's Substack revenue shouldn't be taken 'as reported facts' [doc 34].
Personal / other
Felman mused about meme edits as 'the most powerful form of media' capable of rehabilitating figures from Epstein to Gaddafi [doc 8], joked that New York 'smells like India today' due to wildfires [doc 41], and exchanged pleasantries with mutuals reappearing after the algo change [docs 28, 45, 20, 22].
Calls
- ▲ LONGDRAMLong memory stocks — specifically DRAM — averaging in with room for 15-20% further downside before heavy accumulation. source
- ▲ LONG$SPCXLong SpaceX ($SPCX) once it bases and trades sideways, treating it like a low-float crypto token. source
- ▲ LONGcrypto (broad)Crypto sentiment has bottomed and 'money soon' — the space is coming back to life. source