What did Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) post on X, week of Sep 15 – Sep 21, 2026?

Macro & Fed Policy

Macro and Fed policy dominated the week, anchored by the Fed's unanimous 25 bp hike to a 3.75%-4% range and the political fallout. He argued the hike ended a two-year policy mistake, not created a new one. [1]

The two-year policy error & the hike: He argued the Fed's rate cuts starting Sept. 18, 2024 were a two-year policy error that finally ended with this hike [2]. The 10-year yield is up 1.30% since the cutting cycle began, the only time in 50+ years that long-term yields rose during a prolonged cutting cycle [2]. His most-replied post in this thread (27 replies) argued the Fed did not make a mistake by hiking but ended a two-year mistake, with the market having rejected easy policy through higher yields [3]. He pushed back against the idea that the hike was a mistake, saying the market told the Fed for two years they had the wrong policy [4], [5].

The 12-0 vote & Fed independence: He predicted a split vote would protect Fed independence, but the 12-0 unanimous hike showed half the voters didn't follow through on public statements [6], [1]. His most-discussed post here (30 replies) highlighted global yields at multi-decade highs, with the US 10Y above 5% for the first time since 2007 [7]. The unanimous vote means Trump only needs to pressure one person—Warsh—to get the policy he wants [8]. He noted Warsh didn't submit a dot plot for the second time, seeing it as a refusal to commit to forward guidance [9]. When Trump said he told Warsh to "vote with the board because it's not going to matter," @biancoresearch flagged it as Trump telling Warsh how to vote and defended the Fed's independence from the President [10], [11].

Structural inflation & the 'print oil' rebuttal: He rejected the "Fed can't print oil" narrative as lazy, arguing core PCE has been above 2% for 65 months [12], [13]. Deglobalization ended goods deflation (core goods inflation went from -0.50% for 18 years post-China WTO entry to +1.82% post-COVID), while services inflation has averaged nearly 4% [13]. A 3.5-3.75% funds rate is stimulative given this structural inflation [13]. He also noted the CPI/PCE gap is the largest since 1985 due to housing weightings, and that core PCE at 3.3% and rising supports the hike [14].

October hike & forward guidance: He dismissed the narrative that the Fed can't hike on October 28 because it's the week before the midterms, noting the market prices a 60% chance of a hike and rising [15]. If the Fed defies the market by not hiking, he warned the market could reject it again by pushing yields higher [15]. He also resurfaced his own early-September argument that dismantling forward guidance is healthy and forces leveraged traders back to risk management [16].

other

He mocked Liz Truss for seemingly arguing the UK is having a worse "Liz Truss moment" with gilts near 6% and saying it's not her fault [17]. He used France's credit downgrade to AA+ to explain that government yields are set by inflation expectations, growth, and deficits—not credit ratings—pointing out France has had lower yields than the US for 13+ years despite being a lower-rated credit [18]. He posted a photo of two bearish magazine covers out on the same day, asking if it's time to "back up the truck and buy" [19]. He retweeted @TrungTPhan's joke about a terrifying new Spirit Halloween costume [20].