Fed & Monetary Policy
The through-line is a pre-FOMC prediction that the Fed would signal a hiking cycle, followed by a post-meeting read that Warsh confirmed exactly that framing — making this the week's dominant thread. He expected three hikes from the dots or from Warsh's own signalling about what makes financial conditions 'restrictive' [1]. After the meeting, he read Warsh's language — calling the move 'removing a dose of accommodation' — as a signal that at least some on the FOMC still think conditions are accommodative, which means more hikes [2]. His most-discussed post — 254 likes, 14 replies — made the hiking-cycle case directly [2].
Pre-FOMC hike-cycle call: Two days before the meeting, @josephwang predicted the Fed would signal a gentle cycle of three hikes, coming either from the SEP dots or from Warsh himself defining what gets financial conditions restrictive [1]. This was his standout pre-meeting position — 92 likes and 19 replies on the thread.
Warsh's hiking-cycle framing: After the hike, @josephwang noted that Warsh justified the move as merely 'removing a dose of accomodation' — language that implies the FOMC sees conditions as still accommodative and thus more hikes are coming. When a responder pointed out the dots only show one more hike, he speculated they might 'hike again next year and then cut' [2].
Warsh's Jackson Hole follow-through: He resurfaced his own Aug-30 Jackson Hole post calling for a September hike and noted Warsh followed through on his concern about the 'speed' of getting to target — saying Warsh is 'a man of his word' [3].
other
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Also this week
Macro Show & Content Promotion (~23%): He promoted two pieces of original content this week. A September FOMC debrief with Jack Farley of Monetary Matters went up on YouTube the day of the meeting [4]. His Markets Weekly recap on Sep 19 covered the BOJ hiking and disappointing, the BOE tweaking QT, and French OAT spreads widening [5].
Liquidity & Market Structure (~11%): He argued that Bessent's expanded buyback program isn't working as hoped because the criteria weren't tweaked — the program buys cheap securities to boost liquidity, but to suppress yields it would need to overpay for 'rich' ones. At minimum, fixing this would deploy the full $6b [6].
Media & Public Appearances (~11%): He appeared on NinjaTrader Live's The Morning Gap on FOMC day, breaking down the Fed setup with Samantha LaDuc [7]. The exchange was mostly pleasantries — he told her he enjoyed her segment and she linked her Substack on the 10Y yield at 6% [7].
Top conversations
19 replies · 7.3k views@josephwang predicted a gentle cycle of three hikes from the SEP dots or Warsh's own signalling; a pushback asked whether that could really come from the dots or the presser, and he stood by the dots plus Warsh defining what gets conditions 'restrictive' [1]. [1]
14 replies · 31.9k viewsHe read Warsh's 'removing a dose of accomodation' framing as proof the FOMC still sees conditions as accommodative; when a responder noted the dots only show one more hike, he speculated they might hike again next year and then cut [2]. [2]
7 replies · 15.9k viewsHe resurfaced his own Aug-30 Jackson Hole call and said Warsh is 'a man of his word' for following through on his concern about the speed of getting to target [3]. [3]
Retweets
216.1k viewsretweeted @TheStalwart's video on the idea that the Treasury market is a prediction market. [8]
133.1k viewsretweeted @unusual_whales promoting an FOMC-day X Space featuring @josephwang alongside @super_macro and @stevehou. [9]
22.1k viewsretweeted @JackFarley96 announcing a live post-press-conference breakdown with @josephwang on the Fed's hardest decision in years. [10]
12k viewsretweeted @StephenSpratt citing a BIS review that US Treasury ASW longs (long bond vs swap) have risen from $100bn to $300bn in the past year as RV funds step into cheap bonds. [11]
3.3k viewsretweeted @JackFarley96's podcast episode noting Warsh 'hiked HARD' and that @josephwang called it weeks ago, breaking down what the hawkish decision means for long bonds and why refiners are trade of the year. [12]
