What did Jurrien Timmer (@timmerfidelity) post on X, week of Sep 15 – Sep 21, 2026?

Market Earnings & Valuation

The week's central argument: earnings are still booming but the cost of capital is rising, and that combination is compressing valuations and threatening the Mag 7's decade-long leadership. [1]

Earnings momentum and the forward P/E buffer: US earnings continue to soar with the rate of change still rising, and the forward P/E is down 9% year-over-year to 20x, which he thinks provides some buffer once growth decelerates [2]. The 45-month bull market remains intact globally, driven by earnings growth and margin expansion, with EAFE and EM keeping pace in USD terms [3]. His most-discussed post in this category — 10 replies — laid out that Japan and Canada are the winners on payout growth while EM lags, and that 'there are plenty of fish in the sea' beyond the Mag 7 [3].

Rising cost of capital and the end of the buyback era: Corporate debt issuance is rising just as equity float shrinkage from buybacks ends — companies are so hungry for capital that 'all the spigots are open' at a time when government borrowing is surging and central banks have disappeared as buyers, which means supply outstrips demand for the first time in decades and pushes the cost of capital higher [4]. That rising cost of capital implies a lower P/E via the Fed model [4]. The Mag 7's payout ratio has plummeted to 28% as capex replaces buybacks — and while capex ROI is unknown, buyback ROI was certain, so this uncertainty demands a higher risk premium in both bond and stock markets [5]. The Mag 7's relative performance peaked in line with the end of the buyback era, and since then relative price has diverged from absolute price [5].

Mag 7's reign has ended: Comparing the Mag 7's payout growth rate and payout ratio against equal-weighted S&P 500, value, financials, EAFE, and EM, he concludes the Mag 7 led the secular bull from 2014 through 2025 but 'its reign has ended' [6]. His highest-engagement post of the week — ~8.5k views, 50 likes — framed the big secular question: what will be the catalyst that ends the secular bull that started in 2009? He poses three candidates — the end of the Mag 7's reign, a rising cost of capital, or a saturated market struggling to adapt from a savings glut to a supply glut [1].

Macro & Monetary Policy

The Fed meets this week and the market is demanding it take back the two misplaced rate cuts from last year [7]. Real rates are 2.59% while TIPS break-evens sit at 2.41% even though inflation is running at 3.4% and commodity indices are at new all-time highs — which makes him wonder whether the market is too complacent or whether there's just no signal in the TIPS breaks [7]. Various iterations of the Taylor Rule clearly show those last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed [8]. On the rate side there's not much good to report, other than the likelihood that a larger Bessent Put gets activated if the 10-year yield surpasses 5.0% [9]. But this is more than a US story: other than China, long yields are rising around the world as central banks must turn hawkish again — a global bear steepener [9]. The monthly commodity chart confirms a secular bull market for commodities, which means consumer inflation will remain sticky for some time with the cost of capital to follow [10]. His most-replied macro post — 9 replies — argued that this commodity bull is structural, not cyclical [10].

other

Personal content dominated three posts: grilling swordfish at home in Boston after a month away [11], reflecting on Burning Man decompression and wearing the same pants de-dusted from the playa [12], and a travel-and-market note about a delayed flight from Vancouver and his wife completing her 6th Iron Man [13]. The travel post included a brief market heat-map observation — the market is only 2% off highs despite oil soaring and the 10-year knocking on 5% — but the post is primarily personal [13].