@peterlbrandt

Market Chart Analysis & Calls

Brandt applied classical charting to specific markets, maintaining a purely price-based approach across equities, commodities, and crypto. His standout call was a bullish coffee target: 'Look for Coffee to rise from 343 presently to $510+' based on a completed 50-base pattern, noting 'A 50-base has been completed' [doc 44]. He flagged Live Cattle as the 'best current example of what it looks like for massive supply to enter a market,' expecting a correction 'that will not hold' [doc 45]. In sugar, he explained 'Binary narratives can be made about the #11 Sugar market chart,' explicitly defending Bayesian probability and his ability to hold both bull and bear views [doc 11]. His most-discussed chart post — 26 replies — identified a potential inverted H&S bottom in crude oil, stating 'A close below Monday's low would negate $CL_F' [doc 9]. He also posted a 'VERY VERY UNCONVENTIONAL' potential inverted H&S bottom in Bitcoin at $50 [doc 50], noted the 30-yr bond yield was 'about 18 basis points from screaming 7.5%' with 5.2% acting as the 'Afsluitdijk' (dam) [doc 3][doc 10], and shared a multi-market weekend portfolio stance: long wheat, USD, EU bank stocks, Italian/Singaporean equities, and GBP/EUR; short Eurocurrency and Live Cattle [doc 2]. For silver, he noted a retest of the $55 level that 'launched the move to $120,' suggesting a bottoming phase could begin but allowing a dip 'into the low 40s first' [doc 26]. He also shared an inter-locking H&S pattern in KE with 'Profit potential is $7,500 per CBOT contract' [doc 16], an LME Tin horizontal pattern example [doc 12], and two MSFT charts with the hashtag '#Melinda_should_sell' [doc 13].

Commodity Calls & Structures: Coffee target of $510+ from 343 [doc 44]; Live Cattle supply example [doc 45]; Sugar binary/Bayesian view and 'Analog' research using commercial positioning parallels from 2017/2025 [doc 11][doc 33]; Wheat long in Chicago/KC [doc 2]; LME Tin horizontal pattern [doc 12]; inter-locking H&S in KE with $7,500 profit potential per contract [doc 16]; Crude oil inverted H&S [doc 9].

Macro Markets & Crypto: 30-yr bond yield near 7.5% with 5.2% as the 'Afsluitdijk' [doc 3][doc 10]; Silver retesting $55, possible dip to low 40s [doc 26]; Bitcoin 'unconventional' potential inverted H&S bottom [doc 50]; multi-market portfolio stance including USD long, Euro short, EU bank stocks long [doc 2].

Equities: Two MSFT charts with '#Melinda_should_sell' [doc 13]; long Italian and Singaporean stock prices [doc 2].

Trading Philosophy & Risk Management

Brandt emphasized the psychological realities of speculation and the mathematical truth of the law of large numbers. His most viral post — ~23k views, 117 likes — made a counterintuitive point: 'If you are very bullish on a stock and buy your maximum position...at that point you become a bearish influence on price...Because at that point you become a source of supply' [doc 41]. In a post viewed ~18k times, he rejected the retail obsession with ROR, win rate, and Sharpe, calling such traders 'just another retail chump,' and instead listed the metrics he prioritizes: 'Profit Factor, Expected Value, Calmar, Sortino, Skewness, DD as a percent of previous yrs gains' [doc 28]. He took a stark stance against the survival bias in prop trading: 'Throwing good money after bad (which describes probably 80% of those who keep funding rekt accounts) is a different matter. Personally, I think people should be discouraged from becoming active traders' [doc 35]. He gave his STRONGEST RECOMMENDATION to Gen Z: 'Don't even try' active trading, advocating instead for 80% SPY, 10% PSLV, 10% SGOL monthly investing [doc 7]. On his own process, he stated: 'charts do NOT predict prices...Chart simply tell us where price has come from and where it is now,' with their only value being to help 'define a very asymmetric reward-to-risk possibility' [doc 42]. He affirmed that he takes 'a small loss on 45% of the trades' entered [doc 18], and echoed Druckenmiller's view that 'Discipline not omniscience' and proper symmetry allow small losses to be covered [doc 4].

other

Brandt praised those in the '2-3 σ zone of any profession' as 'artists who have dived deeply down their respective rabbit holes,' extending this to Renaissance Technologies' Ph.D. hires [doc 22], and engaged in light personal banter with a follower about establishing an island and military rule [doc 48].